February 20, 2022
World War III? Or a bad, expensive joke?
Russia has declared a nuclear test alert. The Ukraine crisis is beginning to become very scary.
When the old Soviet Union broke up, I and other moderates called for the former Moscow-dominated states of East Europe to become neutral. Otherwise, East-West conflict would, I warned, be inevitable (see my book ‘War at the Top of the World’).
Instead, the rabidly anti-Russian US war party drove NATO east to the former Soviet borders, making a major confrontation near certain.
We are there today, playing Russian roulette with nuclear weapons.
Washington is beating the war drums and sounds borderline hysterical, warning ‘the Russians are coming.’ Moscow scoffs at the whole business, saying President Joe Biden is trying to divert attention from the big economic and political mess in the US.
Nothing like a jolly little war to distract public opinion at a time when rightwing forces are fast gaining ground in the US and now, of all places, in placid Canada.
The trucker’s blockade that shut down the Canada-US border cost Ottawa billions in lost trade, seriously damaged the image of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and showed that less than 100 ZZ Top look-alike truckers could hold Canada to ransom.
It was also a vivid rehearsal for what the hard right may have in store for November elections. The mob assault on the Capitol on 6 January was only a trial run.
Meanwhile, back in darkest Ukraine, pro- and anti-government factions are trading occasional shells while the US government in Washington claims war is imminent.
The facts on the ground do not support such alarmism. Russia may have up to 150,000 troops positioned around Ukraine (similar to the same strategic advantage that Germany enjoyed over Poland in 1939) but all these units are so far positioned inside Russia. Most of the NATO troops rushed to the east are from outside their home territory.
Crimea and Ukraine were ruled by the Ottoman Empire, and then Crimean Tatars, until annexed by Russia’s Catherine the Great in 1783. They remained an integral part of the Russian Empire until the 1920’s, and, after a brief bout of independence after WWI, until the Communist era.
But one must remember that in the 1930’s, Josef Stalin and his ‘Jewish Himmler,’ Lazar Kaganovitch, murdered some six million Ukrainians by starvation or shootings in an effort to eradicate Ukrainian nationalism and independent farming. This was likely the worst atrocity in Europe until 1944 – done by the key US/British wartime ally. Small wonder the invading Germans in WWII were initially greeted as liberators.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, an ally of billionaire George Soros, now claims that Moscow will stage a false flag operation to justify invading Ukraine. It’s true, Russia just about invented such ploys in the 1919-1920 period when Moscow’s secret police rounded up and crushed the anti-communist opposition. KGB has always loved such deft operations.
But who is Blinken to make such allegations? British media revealed that George W. Bush and UK PM Tony Blair discussed painting US aircraft in UN colors, then buzzing Iraqi anti-aircraft units to provoke a false flag attack on the UN, justifying a US-British attack against Iraq. In fact, the entire Iraq invasion was based on a farrago of lies, double-dealing and torture.
Right on cue, former US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland (born Nudelman), remerges to press for war against Russia. She spent US$5 billion engineering the overthrow of Ukraine’s former elected government which leaned towards Moscow.
As ye sow, so shall ye reap.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2022
Mr. Margolis, long time reader here. I decided to finally sign up to leave comments. First and foremost, thanks for the phenomenal work you’ve done over the years. You have been one of the very few sources I trust on geopolitics. I have given your books to some rather close-minded friends in hopes they would be enlightened, though I’m not sure any of them has read them.
Naturally, what finally prompted my registration was something you wrote which I disagree with! I must take exception to your description of the workers in Ottawa as “far-right.” I saw only one Nazi sign, and it was from a fully masked individual. It is likely that this was an agent of the Trudeau government attempting to make the protestors look bad. This man was confronted on video by several of the protestors and scurried away. The CBC’s characterization of the protest was grotesque. These are people who simply want their rights back. Reasonable people can disagree on COVID measures, but as someone who has closely worked with Ron Paul, I’m sure you know there are many of us who oppose such measures and are hardly “far-right.” We can disagree without applying such labels to large swaths of people.
Oh, and I must confess to being rather surprised about your writings on the commotion at the US Capitol. While clearly idiotic & criminal, the idea that a few morons walking around (almost all unarmed) was going to take over the most powerful empire ever was always laughable. Two things can both be true: the riot was a criminal, sad display, yet the security state is also seizing it has an opportunity to expand their already absurd powers. You saw this where very few did after 9/11 and lost your job for it. Glenn Greenwald has done a strong job documenting the movements of the security state after the capitol riot.
At any rate, glad to see you are writing more reguarly again! I had been worried that you may had gotten sick. With things moving even faster than usual in geopolitics, you’ll have no shortage of material. Thanks Eric!
The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. Ukraine should be offered all assistance short of war. We cannot initiate a conflict with a country which could easily escalate into nuclear war.
Pushing Russia into a corner by removing them from the SWIFT banking system and punishing sanctions meant to cripple the economy, will only embolden Putin who will not back down till all options, including nuclear, have been exhausted. The West and NATO cannot remain quiet or risk losing complete relevance after the on-going defiance of China and the humiliation in Afghanistan. The pandemic had this eerie vibe of being the prelude to something bigger and worse – World War 3, Armageddon, Malahama, call it what you will, there seem to be bad times ahead.
A surprising column that has not aged well.
Some comments –
I was not surprised when former Warsaw Pact countries joined NATO – given their prior occupation by the Soviet Union, it would have been more surprising had they not sought some means of protection from reoccupation.
Re: the occupation of border crossings and downtown Ottawa – of course these could have been cleared very quickly. In the end, they petered out with minimal use of force and injury. I thought it was a very Canadian approach to dealing with the matter. Rather than solidifying the far right in Canada, they have more likely solidified the middle of Canadian society against those who have supported them or been tepid in their denunciation.
Whataboutism never makes a strong argument. The attack on Iraq was unjustified and a humanitarian disaster. But it in no way is relevant to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The attack on Ukraine is unjustified.
OK, Eric blew the call when Russia went full-in on a Ukraine invasion.
Frankly I’m not sure anyone saw this completely over-the-top military action actually playing out as it has.
Now that we are in it, perhaps Eric can comment on the difficulties Russia will face in trying to subdue the whole of Ukraine.
Comparing the Russia/Ukraine invasion to the US in Iraq, it would seem to me that the difference in military sophistication between the combatants is much less in Ukraine now. 3 days in and Russia hasn’t even achieved 100% air superiority. Shocker!
Where does that leave an outcome? Years of fighting? When do foreign fighters come streaming over the Polish border to lend a hand? How incredibly messy will this get and how much more irrational will Putin become? Are Vlad’s days numbered?
Eric, we need your thoughts on this.
looks like you called it accurately .at 3am Russia takes out aircraft bases in Ukraine .
early trading on the markets indicate oil prices will sky rocket.
better fill up the car with gas before the we hit a new high at the pumps.
ironic that Trudeau dumped the emerg act yesterday.
hnag on to your hat…
What never fails to amaze me is no matter how many times America is proven to be lying to the world peons like Trudeau and Boris Johnson fall in line.
This is from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “A Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen in days or even hours”. Until now, I supported that organisation. They should stick to advancing their clock and get out of politics.