July 16, 2026
Keep your eyes on the Bab el-Mandeb, or Strait of Tears, the narrow strait at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.
Twenty-five percent of the world’s container shipping passes through this vital strait. This is the mandatory passage on the fastest route from Europe and the Mideast to Asia. The alternative is the lone, long passage from Europe around the vastness of the African continent, thence around the Cape of Good Hope, and then across the Indian Ocean to the heart of Asia – China, Japan, Singapore and Korea.
While all eyes are fixed on the more easterly route, the Strait of Hormuz, the equally important Bab el-Mandeb, or Strait of Tears, lies between the southern tip of Arabia and the mountainous coast of Ethiopia. It’s a mere 28km wide at its narrowest point. Ethiopian armies, Turks, and Biblical prophets have crossed this way. The British Empire established an important naval base at nearby Aden to control the Red Sea and the Suez Canal which opened in 1869.
This week, the Shia Houthi tribe, which has gained control of most of Yemen, and the former British Aden Colony, threatened to unleash missile and drone attacks on neighboring Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The Houthis, a plucky bunch of mountain tribesmen, threatened to shut the Bab el-Mandeb, an act that would very likely ignite an international financial crisis.
The Saudis, who are petrified of the more numerous but cash-poor Yemenis, were busy pleading for US, British and Pakistani military help. Turkey, serious military power, was asked for help. Trump, who counts on discreet Saudi donations for upcoming midterm US elections, muttered about sending ground troops to invade Iran’s principal oil terminal at Kish Island.
The Pakistanis, a serious military power but without oil, are thinking about a future military presence in Saudi Arabia. They used to have a full division of their crack army stationed in Saudi Arabia in the 1980’s.
America’s close Arab ally, the United Arab Emirates, is up to all kinds of hanky panky in the Red Sea region, including secretly funding conflicts in Somalia, Ethiopia, the Sudan conflict, and Chad. The UAE has become a cat’s paw for US imperial interests and for Israel’s far right regime.
If the US and Israel carry out threats to attack Houthi Yemen, the wild Yemeni mountaineers may move to block The Red Sea. They are the only Arab nation with enough testosterone to fire missiles at Israel to retaliate for its killing of some 76,000 Palestinians. The big-talking Saudis, Egyptians, and Kuwaitis cowered beneath America’s skirts. Yemen and Iran stood alone against Israel and its American friends.
Behind the scenes another potential adversary is carefully watching, China. Beijing has taken careful note of how the US has sought to cut off Iran’s oil exports and imports. Washington would employ similar strategy in a major war with China – except that it would run out of missiles and drones even sooner by attacking military and oil targets across China – and could even have to resort to tactical nuclear weapons as the US planes used to do in the 1960’s.
Trump, remember what Ben Franklin said, ‘no good war; no bad peace.’ Or, as they say in the New York real estate business, ‘first loss, best loss’.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2026
This post is in: Uncategorized
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