August 8, 2024
In 1982, I was with Israel’s army when it invaded southern Lebanon. We moved from menacing village to village ready for an attack by Hezbollah fighters.
Israel’s objective was to seize the southern portion of Lebanon, notably the Litani River, the region’s major source of potable water. The historic Port of Tyre – old when Rome was young – was another key target. It had been largely seized by Maronite fascist militias allied and supplied by Israel.
Israel claimed it was battling ‘terrorism.’ In fact, Israel’s ultimate objective was – as always – more land for the Jewish state. When Israel was created in 1948, there was much speculation about whether the new Jewish state would go on to annex all of southern Lebanon.
That did not happen after the US put its foot down. Those were the days before Israel dominated US Mideast policy and gave the US president his marching orders. Today, the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, on which I’ve been at sea, lies off the Mideast, ready to attack Iran.
The US and Israel have been trying to provoke wars with Iran since its 1979 Islamic revolution which ousted its US/Israeli run royal regime. Assassinations by the US of Iranian General Soleimani and the killing recently of top Iranian commanders in Lebanon and Tehran have brought Iran and Israel to the edge of war.
According to my information, the US and Israel plan to launch over 3,400 air strikes against Iranian targets that include all nuclear installations (shades of Chernobyl). Transport hubs, airfields and ports, naval and air units, military plants, missile bases, telecommunications, intelligence HQ’s, broadcasting, Revolutionary Guards HQ’s, police HQ’s.
Israel has long been itching to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and permanently cripple its nuclear programs. The US has supplied Israel with the special heavy bombs, targeting info, and long-range aircraft for this job. In addition, Israel also has German submarines carrying missiles armed with nuclear warheads that can strike every Mideast capital.
Behind all the hyped-up drama of Israel v. Iran lies the fact that Iran has, so far, no way to effectively attack Israel. Its last barrage of missiles and drones proved about as dangerous and ineffective as throwing rocks. Iran has been under an intensive US arms and equipment embargo since 1979. Similar sanctions on Iraq resulted in it being unable to replace warped tank gun barrels in 2003 that could not shoot straight.
Israel’s attacks and assassinations have left Iran in a difficult position. It cannot really do major damage to Israel but, if it attacks, will suffer catastrophic damage itself. So long as neither side uses nuclear weapons, that is.
Another ugly possibility is that either side may revert to a plan considered by Egypt back in the late 1950’s: packing missile warheads with radioactive waste to counter Israeli threats to drop a nuclear weapon on Egypt’s huge Aswan Dam, an act that would have flooded the entire Nile Valley, including Cairo.
An Iranian attack on Israel will have little strategic efficacy. Prime targets in Israel for Iran would be Ben Gurion Airport, Haifa port, Tel Nof and other airbases and the Weizman Science complex. Only the airfields and Israel’s dimona reactor would be strategic targets, and perhaps Israel’s vulnerable electricity grid.
But Iran must keep its militant stance lest the current Tehran regime be discredited and even overthrown. This means more pinprick attacks and military parades in Tehran showing off high-tech weapons that barely work, if at all.
It is very unlikely Israel will invade Iran using ground operations. Iran is too big, too populous and too proven in war against Iraq. Gaza was too much of a public relations disaster for Israel. Iran could do little beyond commando raids across the border. The rest of the Muslim world has done nothing as it watches the starvation or wounding of over 90,000 Palestinians (half children) and the deaths of 40,000.
An Iranian militant once told me in Tehran, ‘we welcome an American invasion. They will break their teeth on Iran just as they did in Iraq and Afghanistan.’
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2024
Iran had promised REVENGE after the assassination of the hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh; look like the the REVENGE is on hold for the moment.
Now Russia is in the picture , willing to supply arms to Iran with conditions, meanwhile the OIC betrayed Iran by not supporting Teheran in case of any war against Israel though they condemned Israel’s action.
America, on its part sent one F-22 Squadron, multiple navy cruisers, Naval destroyers, New Aircraft Carrier – Abraham Lincoln and 4500 sailors to West Asia; this indicates US is ready to defend Israel, putting Iran in a panic mode.
Meanwhile Iran’s proxies especially Hezbollah is very eager for the war, not willing to wait for the signal from Iran though the terrorist group funded by Iran.
Hamas who started the war, lost almost all their captains and commandos and lately their chief in Teheran is without any direction and clueless.
However the message to the terrorist is this :
Nazis killed six million Jewish people but even after all those gas chambers and murderous shootings the Jewish survived.
Today they are having one of the best armies in the world
There are 6,0000 startups currently in Israel, there are more than 30 technology companies valued over US 1 billion in Israel.
Beside Diamonds, they export Integrated Circuits, Refined Petroleum, Medical Instruments and Potassic Fertilizers while Iran exporting terrorism to the world.
Nameste!
When Ayotollah Khomeni became the Supreme leader for Iran he declared Israel is an enemy of god, and should be removed from world map, since than, for the past 40 over years, thousand of Israeli flags were burnt ironically the god of Khomeni couldnt do anything to Israel neither could remove Israel from the world map, has his god gone for a vacation?
On Nov 4 1979 the Iranian students seized the American embassy and detained more than 60 Americans and held the diplomats for 444 days! Wondering who provoked the war?
Even a fool who keeps silent is considered wise if he closes his lips, he is regarded as intelligent, but our friend Soleiman , the Iranian General challenged the US army, paid heavy price.
The newly elected president Pezeshkian may be a reformer but he is irrelevant , Iran is ruled by ayotollahs and IRGC. Currently Iran is funding Hezbollah sending hundreds of millions to the group. The Times reports Hamas received some 200 million from Iran between 2014 and 2020. Teheran had allies among more than a dozen major militias. Irans Revolution Guards and the elite Quds force provided arms training and financial support to their militias and political movements in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Their ideology paid a heavy price for the Iranian people. Iran with its ruthless and brutal suppression the killing of young people on the streets the executions and the imprisonment and torture of men and women put the country in bad shape