June 1, 2019
How fleeting is glory! Back in 1998, the South Asian Journalists Association proclaimed me ‘Journalist of the Year’ for a newspaper article I had written about India.
But the next year the award was angrily rescinded after I wrote that India should compromise with Pakistan over the festering Kashmir conflict. Prickly Indians didn’t like being criticized, even by an old friend like myself.
This week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his rightwing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coalition won a landslide electoral victory, gaining 302 of the 542 seats in parliament. The venerable Congress opposition party, that long led India, was crushed.
We should pay attention. India is more or less the world’s largest democracy and is expected to be the third largest economic power by 2020. It’s also an important nuclear state with land and sea-launched ICBM’s that can strike the United States and Canada, Europe, and its rival, China.
I’ve been writing for decades about the threat of accidental or planned nuclear war with Pakistan over Kashmir. My first book, ‘War at the Top of the World,’ deals with the potential of future war between India and China over the high Himalayas and Burma, as well as India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
India, energized by growing economic power and nuclear Viagra is feeling its national oats. Prime Minister Modi is a hard-line religious nationalist determined to press his concept of ‘Hindutva,’ or religious power. He has vowed to confront India’s largest minority, some 200 million Muslims, 15% of its estimated 1.3 billion people, and make India a great Hindu power again.
Modi has sometimes been called ‘India’s Trump.’ He was governor of India’s most business-oriented state, Gujarat. Modi is openly antagonistic to Muslims and Sikhs, and failed to halt the massacre of thousands of Muslims during his tenure. He commands wide public support for his Muslim-bashing and anti-Pakistan invective. Modi likes to wave the scimitar and vaunt his military muscle.
Last February, he sent Indian warplanes to attack Pakistan after Kashmir nationalists (‘terrorists’ to Indians) attacked an Indian military convoy. India humiliatingly lost one of its MiG’s to Pakistan’s crack air force. Worse, Modi ran a very dangerous and totally unnecessary risk by attacking nuclear-armed Pakistan. But Hindu nationalist mobs loved it. Just as many ill-informed Americans love Trump’s war threats against Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and, of course, Russia.
Like Trump, Modi keeps invoking India’s past without really addressing its current problems like entrenched cast problems, growing crime, terrible national sanitation, rampant corruption, lethal air pollution and endemic communal tensions. Interestingly, in the recent elections, a majority of low cast ‘untouchables’ (now called ‘Dalits’ but still as untouchable) voted for the BJP. So did India’s always restive eastern hills states. These are positive signs for Modi’s BJP.
By contrast, the Congress Party that brought India to independence from British colonial rule in 1947 and gave it the elite Gandhi ruling dynasty, was crushed in the vote. Dynastic politics is always bad medicine, be it Gandhis, Kennedys, Bhuttos or Romanovs. The youthful but disappointing heir to the Gandhi’s Congress political machine, Rahul Gandhi, had no heart in the fight and even lost one of his two ‘safe’ seats.
That’s too bad. Congress has a fairly moderate policy towards Muslims and Pakistan. Not so the BJP which remains based on an extreme Hindu movement founded in 1925 that promotes grassroots Hinduisation of the nation, or even expulsion of Muslims, as just occurred in Buddhist Burma (Myanmar). Many on the Hindu hard right also call for the ‘reabsorption’ of Pakistan into Mother India, though, confusingly, that would add 213 million angry Muslims.
Meanwhile, India’s formerly stagnant economy is bustling, thanks in good part to lifting of punitive tax and absurd government restrictions known as the ‘license Raj.’ Foreign investment is pouring into India, and highly educated Indian immigrants into the United States. Back in the early 1990’s, I was given a early look at India’s just formed version of Silicon Valley, the city of Bangalore, (home of the ‘bangalore torpedo’ for breaching barbed wire.) This complex grew into today’s IT powerhouse, the pride of India.
India is on a roll. Now, even more so thanks to a strong central government that favors commerce and big business. But it’s not all sitar music and incense. India is a modern nation of 600 million atop an ancient rural nation of 700 million. Modern India will struggle to escape ancient Mother India. The Indian colossus still has political and financial feet of clay.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2019
This post is in: India
I doubt Putin would be invited to play a game in today’s India/ Pakistan’s situation as the scenario is totally different compare to the 60’s. The Indians wanted a tough guy against Pakistan unlike Gandhi who made the mistake by giving away West Punjab to the muslims who refuse to live among the Hindus. The muslims denounced their identity and culture in the name of islam in overnight,took arms against India and exported terrorism to Kashmir and the Hindus were pressured to move to Jammu and other parts of India. By not inviting the Pakistan Prime Minister to his oath taking ceremony Mr.Modi has given a strong message to Pakistan.
In this crazy world, where so many countries are nuclear armed, nobody knows who friend or foe. And the world-wide corruption guarantees, that friends are only friends, if they benefit from it. Julius Caesar thought he could trust his friends, but when he was being stabbed to death he uttered those famous words : “Et tu Brute” (even you Brutus). There are too many ‘coincidences’ between the Roman and American empires, that those words can be waved away. History tells us, that treaties are worthless. Ask our indigenous people. And again, religion is central in disputes as it always has been. Religion and politics have a symbiotic relationship.
Treaties seem to have less value under Trump. I wouldn’t trust him any further than I could throw him… he’s somewhat porcine and I’m growing old and weak.
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Dik
I mistrust Trump more than the Mafia.
It seems the entire world is moving into ‘hard line’ mode. I suspect little good will come of it and the likelihood of war increases. With the stress of not having sufficient land area and not being able to provide sufficient food due to climate change, this will get worse.
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I’ve never thought of India as being a cool thoughtful rational sort of country. They are a paradox of a very few learned elite and a huge mass of ignorants. Their civil rights and social treatment has been in the news of late, and, none of it is good. Their politicians are masters of the oriental kabuki… full of sound and fury, signifying nothing (with apologies to Macbeth) and with the costumes to match.
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Your ‘Journalism of the Year Award’ likely wasn’t worth much if it can be rescinded at the ‘toss of a hat’. You are worthy of much more.
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If I were the ruler of Pakistan, I’d be a bit uncomfortable and would be forging additional ties with China and Russia and arming myself. This does little to promote world peace, but is self-defensive.
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The Kashmir can also flare up quickly with a heavy handed response from India. The response is more likely under Modi. This, too, does little to promote world peace.
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A hard line approach to dealing with the Sikhs and Muslims, by the Hindus, will likely cause local strife that will need to be ‘put down’. This will further Modi’s new position, but will lead to bloodshed and and further action. It will be interesting to see where this will ‘stop’. The large numbers of Sikhs and Muslims will ensure that this becomes ‘interesting’.
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Dik
China already has Pakistan’s back and has for many years. As for Russia, that country and Pakistan have seldom had good relations (they did so for a few years in the 1960s, when Ayub Khan was Pakistan’s president), so Putin is unlikely to come to Pakistan’s aid against India. However, Putin might feel inclined to do something helpful by encouraging both sides to cool it and back away from an armed confrontation. Back in early 1966, then First Deputy Premier Alexei Kosygin succeeded in mediating a peace deal between India and Pakistan following their 17 day war in Sept. 1965, so maybe Putin would be interested in playing hero in today’s situation.