A LONG WAY TO GO FOR DINNER
March 2, 2019
President Donald Trump’s air trip to Vietnam cost taxpayers $5,695,000 just for the president’s flying Taj Mahal. Plus millions more for his retainers, the presidential limo, hotel rooms, meals, security details and only Ho Chi Minh knows what else.
For what? A nice photo op and a cheery dinner for the two leaders in Hanoi. Just about everyone who follows Asian affairs knew in advance that North Korean dynastic strongman (aka king) had no interest or good reason for giving up his nuclear program. The director of US national intelligence, Dan Coates, told Trump as much last week.
Many moons ago, I worked in Jamaica on land and port development projects. The boss of my firm, a self-important, bigwig, used to brush off each new problem by saying in his melodious English-Jamaican accent, ‘don’t worry, I will neeeegotiate it!’ But more often than not, the chief negotiator made a mess of things.
America’s self-proclaimed chief negotiator just did the same in Vietnam. Either he was so anxious to get out of Washington to avoid the rising storm of scandals he faces or he thought he could flatter the North Korean leader into giving up his nuclear weapons, the only thing that prevents a US invasion of North Korea or a regime change operation.
One also doubts that Trump & Co. realized just how much North Korea’s neighbors, Russia and China, were whispering in Kim Jong Un’s ear. Where did North Korea’s nuclear technology and missiles come from? Did Trump really believe crafty Vlad Putin would allow him to charm the pants off Kim?
So-called ‘denuclearizing’ North Korea was always snake oil. The only effective way to reduce Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal is to engage in patient quid pro quo concessions over years. A better way would be to declare an end to the 1950 Korean War and slowly lift crushing US sanctions against North Korea, then let South Korea take the lead in rebuilding the North. And, most of all, cease US threats to invade North Korea and/or overthrow the Kim dynasty.
For their part, the North Koreans could demand the US denuclearize the region, removing its nuclear weapons from Japan, South Korea, Guam and the Fifth Fleet. Pyongyang could also insist that the more than 30,000 US troops and air bases in South Korea be removed. These are the true diplomatic issues, not hugs and professions of undying love.
President Trump is an amateur diplomat even though he thinks he’s a king. All the attention he gets from US media has clearly gone to his head. His `Art of the Deal’ did not work in Hanoi.
Interestingly, the American media didn’t devote much attention to the irony of Trump’s first brush with Vietnam in the late 1960’s, when his wealthy family secured for him a reported six medical deferments over a tiny foot problem that kept him out of the US Army during the Vietnam War. I enlisted in the army and limped through basic and advanced infantry training with a broken bone in my left foot during the same conflict because I believed it was the duty of every US citizen to do military duty.
Trump’s insistence that North Korea scrap most or even all of its nuclear weapons in exchange for a moderate lessening of US sanctions looked like a non-starter before Trump left for Hanoi. It’s very likely that arch war-monger John Bolton, who sabotaged previous nuclear deals with Iran and North Korea, played a major role in this fiasco.
Interestingly, Trump earlier told reporters that Russia’s Putin had told him that KGB reported that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal was mostly bluster. KGB has a reputation for accuracy.
Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim must make another two day train journey back to Pyongyang. He has to get over his fear of flying – which is more secure than train travel. The Hanoi failure may undermine Kim’s hold on power. This is not good. The Kim you know is far better than the one you don’t. A wobbly North Korea would be much more dangerous than the kingdom of Kim. North and South Korea are making important progress to building better relations.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2019
This post is in: North Korea, USA
Someone in the Regan administration said that presidential trips abroad are ALWAYS for domestic consumption. In the last few weeks, Trumps poll numbers are down due to failures of the govt closure and border wall financing. This trip was to re-convince his supporters that he is the great deal maker by showing he can walk away from a bad deal. I suspect the decision to walk away had been made before he left.
When your deficit is twenty-two trillion dollars and growing, five or six million dollars is only ‘Trump Change’; it pales in comparison. Politicians have long lost any fiscal responsibility. The flying Taj Mahal is simply the trappings to show prestige and power. I thought it was nice that the Kim travelled by train showing some environmental awareness. I wasn’t aware he was afraid of air travel. As you note, air travel is safer based on miles travelled; I’m not so sure if the number of take-offs and landings is considered.
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I think everyone knew the meeting was doomed from the start. Dan Coats was not the only prescient one. I think the ‘guy on the street’ was aware of this outcome. It’s not in Kim’s interests to get rid of his nuclear arsenal. He could go the way of Hussein and Gaddafi, and would likely have perished decades back. His thoughts, “I’m just a little guy, but, I carry a ‘big stick’.” Other than American bullying, there is no need for Kim to disarm. The Americans (Pence and Bolton) are in the process of bringing Saudi Arabia into the nuclear club; this, in my opinion, is far more dangerous.
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I think, left on their own without American meddling, that North and South Korea will mend any fences and will work in conjunction with each other to the benefit of both countries. There should be a formal armistice. Terms can simply be that the war is over… no conditions, etc. The Americans can be asked to leave South Korea; this, they will not be happy with. The two Koreas, in spite of their hatred of the Japanese, can approach Japan and normalise relations (not likely happen, but, would be nice). The Japanese people have wanted the Americans to leave their islands, too. This would play well if it weren’t for the Chinese presence in the South China Sea.
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Donald reminds me the the shark analogy that ‘if I stop, I perish’. He seems to skirt numerous issues and is not tied down so his actions never seem to catch up with him.
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The influence of Russia and China is unknown. I suspect it is substantial due to their proximity and the impact the unified Koreas could have on the area. They would perceive a negative impact from any American involvement. The Chinese and Russian leaders, unlike the American counterparts, are pretty sharp and astute. The Kim’s use of the term ‘dotard’ elevated him several feet in my opinion. The Donald likely had to have someone ‘look up’ the meaning of the word.
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Keeping the sanctions in place can have real negative results. I understand it was the crippling sanctions the US applied to Japan that was one of the main reasons for Japan to enter into WWII, with their attack on Pearl Harbor.
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The UN should be the body that determines if sanctions are to be applied and the extent. This should not be unilaterally undertaken by the US. It’s one of the ‘big sticks’ the Americans have wielded for decades and should stop. Threatening to ‘brow beat’ countries into compliance with the American way is simply the actions of a bully.
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You pretty much sum it up:
“For their part, the North Koreans could demand the US denuclearize the region, removing its nuclear weapons from Japan, South Korea, Guam and the Fifth Fleet. Pyongyang could also insist that the more than 30,000 US troops and air bases in South Korea be removed. These are the true diplomatic issues, not hugs and professions of undying love.”
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I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a response or positive action.
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With his Vietnam war history, I’ve given Trump the moniker D^3 (D cubed) a short form of Draft Dodger Donald. As far as your own involvement in that war, I have serious reservations. Many believe the war was immoral and should never have been pursued. It may have been a precursor to the moral decline of the US. I have difficulty connecting the Vietnam War with defense of the United States. I was actively involved in helping Draft Dodgers come into Canada.
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“It’s very likely that arch war-monger John Bolton, who sabotaged previous nuclear deals with Iran and North Korea, played a major role in this fiasco.” Truer words were never spoken. He and his kind are extremely dangerous.
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Dik
Just a clarification. The US’s annual federal deficit is currently around one trillion dollars, but the total accumulated debt is approximately $22 trillion (and growing). When Trump was running for President, this was a matter of great concern. Now that he is President, it seems that the US deficits and debt don’t matter so much.
Sure hope there is not a day of reckoning…
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Dik
Well written commentary. The line that really caught my attention: “…either he was so anxious to get out of Washington to avoid the rising storm of scandals he faces or he thought he could flatter the North Korean leader into giving up his nuclear weapons…”. Trump was indeed anxious to get out of town ahead of Michael Cohen’s testimony in front of the House oversight committee and to create a diversion for the press. He failed on those counts and otherwise in his efforts to charm Kim Jong-un into giving up his country’s nuclear weapons. Kim has little incentive to give in to Trump’s demands and knows better than to believe any of the US President’s phony promises.
Personally I think #45 walked away because the world was paying far more attention to Michael Cohen’s testimony than to him and as a malignant narcissist he could not stand that happening.