February 23, 2019
While Americans were obsessing over a third-rate actor’s fake claims of a racial assault, old foes India and Pakistan were rattling their nuclear weapons in a very dangerous crisis over Kashmir. But hardly anyone noticed that nuclear war could break out in South Asia.
India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed, have fought four wars over divided Kashmir since 1947, the lovely mountain state of forests and lakes whose population is predominantly Muslim. India controls two thirds of Kashmir; Pakistan and China the rest. This bitter dispute, one of the world’s oldest confrontations, has defied all attempts to resolve it.
The United Nations called on India to hold a plebiscite to determine Kashmir’s future, but Delhi ignored this demand, knowing it would probably lose the vote.
Muslim Kashmiris have been in armed revolt against harsh Indian occupation since the 1980’s. Some 70,000 civilians, mostly Muslims, have died to date. Today, India stations a million soldiers and paramilitary forces in Kashmir to repress popular demands by Muslim Kashmiris for either union with neighboring Pakistan or an independent Kashmiri state.
India’s human rights groups accuse Delhi of grave human rights violations, including torture, murder, rape and collective punishment. Delhi says it is protecting Kashmir’s Hindus and Sikhs from Muslim reprisals, and blames the uprising on what it calls ‘cross border terrorism’ initiated by old enemy, Pakistan.
Last week, a Kashmiri ‘mujahidin’ rammed his explosive-laden car into a bus filled with paramilitary Indian troops at Pulwama, killing over 40 and provoking outrage across India.
Unable to crush the decades-old uprising in Kashmir, India threatens major reprisal attacks on Pakistan. However, Kashmir is mountainous, offering poor terrain for India’s overwhelming superiority in tanks and artillery. So Indian commanders have long pressed Delhi to allow them to attack further south on the flat plains of Punjab.
Powerful Indian armored strike corps are poised to slice into vulnerable Pakistan and chop it up into pieces. India has also considered heavy air strikes into Pakistani Punjab and even a naval blockade to cut off Pakistan’s oil imports.
Outnumbered and outgunned six to one by India, Pakistan has developed a potent arsenal of nuclear weapons that can be delivered by aircraft, short and medium-ranged missiles and artillery. Pakistan says it will riposte almost immediately with tactical nuclear weapons to a major Indian attack. Both sides’ nuclear forces are on a hair-trigger alert, greatly increasing the risks of an accidental nuclear exchange.
More detail on this threat scenario may be found in my ground-breaking book on the region’s many dangers, ‘War at the Top of the World.’ Rand Corp estimated a decade ago that an Indo-Pak nuclear exchange would kill two million immediately and 100 million in ensuing weeks. India’s and Pakistan’s major water sources would be contaminated. Clouds of radioactive dust would blow around the globe.
India is deeply frustrated by its inability to crush the independence movement in Kashmir, labeling it ‘terrorism.’ True enough, Pakistan’s crack intelligence service, ISI, has links to the many Kashmiri mujahidin groups. But the uprising is also due to often brutal, corrupt Indian rule over Kashmir and the desire by Muslims for self-rule. As I have often written, every people has a god-given right to be misruled by their own people.
Right now, India is debating a major punitive strike against Pakistan. India national elections are imminent. The Hindu nationalist government in Delhi fears being accused of being soft on Pakistan. It was during a similar crisis in the 1980’s that Pakistan’s tough leader, Gen. Zia ul-Haq, flew to Delhi in a surprise visit and averted a war being planned by India.
If India does launch attacks they will likely be large in scale and involve heavy use of tactical air power. If units on either side become bogged down in fighting, commanders may call for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Far outgunned Pakistan has been clear about such recourse. The urge to be first to strike with nuclear arms will be powerful.
Once again, the bitter Kashmir dispute endangers the rest of the world. The great powers should be pressing both India and Pakistan to reach a compromise on this problem. But India has long opposed internationalization of the issue, saying it is a domestic Indian matter. It is difficult to imagine the current Hindu nationalist government in Delhi backing down over Kashmir. But India must be very cautious because behind Pakistan stands its ally China which shares a long, often poorly-defined border with India. Kashmir, not Korea, is the world’s most dangerous border.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2019
I was just about to email you with questions about this and lo and behold, you’ve written a blog about it. Thank goodness for China.
Not a big fan of international intervention but these two nuclear armed enemies require the big boys to step in before it gets out of control of the political leadership.
Stakes are far too high.
This is how things get interesting…
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47366718
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May we live in interesting times…
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Dik
and an update:
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-47382949
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This could be getting more serious. From a professor at John Hopkins:
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“Daniel Markey believes the escalation is more serious that one anticipated – “moving the conflict into Pakistan ‘proper’ was intended to be a muscular and different move, one that most recent Indian prime ministers would have been reluctant to take”.”
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Dik
Jais Mohammad, the terrorist based in Pakistan claimed responsibility for the attack that killed 42 Indian troops in Pulwama. As expected Pakistan denied the attack and claimed Jais Mohammads movement is banned in Pakistan.Trump was wise to withhold the funds to Pakistan knowing Pakistans ardent support for terrorism especially against India which is hindu based.India is not a fool to let go Kashmir to Pakistan despite its close relationship with Communist China,the country which is locking some 1 million Uighur muslims at their cells.If Pakistan wants to fulfill its dream to conquer India and establish islamic ruling via Kashmir is a bad idea.
As I understand it, the Kashmir is as wild and wooly as was the American West a century ago. No signs of local law and order. It is located a great distance from Islamabad and is largely uncontrollable.
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Pakistan should ask the UN to intervene and for the sake of the world come up with a proposal that would solve the problem, once and for all (maybe). This plan should be implemented. The terrorists/freedom fighters would then disappear into the landscape. The UN should compel India into allowing a ‘binding’ plebiscite that would determine the future of the Kashmiris (sp?). Let the people determine their future. One less world ‘hotspot’.
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The problem is religious in nature and will not be solved by force, except for a short time. The peasants’ lives are pitiful and they suffer from day to day. What better way to ‘shuffle off these mortal coils’ and retire in heaven that to use your body as a weapon, and become an instant martyr.
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If not, it’s like ‘Whack a Mole’… thump one and two more pop up somewhere else.
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Dik
Just a couple of observations:
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It wasn’t until I read your book, “War at the Top of the World”, that I became aware of the struggle between Pakistan and India over the Kashmir. I guess, out of sight, out of mind. The UN has the correct resolution that there should be a plebiscite to determine the peaceful way forward. It’s understandable that India would resist this because they will most certainly lose territory. It is likely that this will be a point of contention for decades. There is no easy resolution. That both India and Pakistan have strong political parties that weigh heavily on ‘saving face’ does not bode well.
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The other observation was that with Trump holding back funds from Pakistan, I had expected Pakistan to immediately close all roads leading to Afghanistan. This is an American ‘lifeline’ for the continued occupation of Afghanistan. I had also thought that Russia and the Chinese would step forward to provide needed defences for Pakistan to prevent incursion into their airspace. This did not happen; perhaps there are ‘cooler minds’ at play, than I had expected. Maybe I’m just too suspicious.
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As noted in your book, this continues to be a major world hotspot, with unpredictable protagonists. This, the Americans inviting Saudi Arabia into the nuclear club, and the cancellation of the nuclear weapons treaty should advance the doomsday clock by another 30 seconds…
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Dik
I read this article with particular interest, because our family lived in Pakistan for over three years in the 1960s and we were there during the Indo-Pakistan war of Sept. 1965. While the assumption by many people is that the Muslim majority in the Indian-held portion of Kashmir would like to be part of Pakistan, the truth is that most Kashmiris, including those in the Pakistani-held portion, would really prefer to be fully independent. However, since that would mean having a landlocked country, Kashmiris mostly understand that full independence for their region would be mostly impractical. But, do most Muslims in the Indian-held portion really want to be part of Pakistan otherwise? That’s not so clear and it’s also unclear that they would be better off under Pakistan than under Indian rule.
As for the threat of nuclear war that now hangs over India and Pakistan, the threat of Chinese intervention on Pakistan’s side might persuade India to back away from a head-on confrontation with its neighbor. If not, then a nuclear war between India and Pakistan would be the most avoidable tragedy of our time for the entire globe.
More Muslims on the Indian side want to be with Pakistan than remain with India, and most probably want independence of their own, but we will never know as India does not allow them to vote.