April 15, 2017
“If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will.”
So thundered President Donald Trump last week. Unfortunately, neither China nor North Korea appeared intimidated by this presidential bombast or Trump’s Tweets.
What would ‘we will’ actually entail? This clear threat makes us think seriously about what a second Korean War would be like. Memory of the bloody, indecisive first Koran War, 1950-53, which killed close to 3 million people, has faded. Few Americans have any idea how ferocious a conventional second Korean War could be. They are used to seeing Uncle Sam beat up small, nearly defenseless nations like Iraq, Libya or Syria that dare defy the Pax Americana.
The US could literally blow North Korea off the map using tactical nuclear weapons based in Japan, South Korea and at sea with the 7th Fleet. Or delivered by B-52 and B-1 bombers and cruise missiles. But this would cause clouds of lethal radiation and radioactive dust to blanket Japan, South Korea and heavily industrialized northeast China, including the capital, Beijing.
China would be expected to threaten retaliation against the United States, Japan and South Korea to deter a nuclear war in next door Korea. At the same time, if heavily attacked, a fight-to-the-end North Korea may fire off a number of nuclear-armed medium-range missiles at Tokyo, Osaka, Okinawa and South Korea. These missiles are hidden in caves in the mountains on wheeled transporters and hard to identify and knock out.
This is a huge risk. Such a nuclear exchange would expose about a third of the world’s economy to nuclear contamination, not to mention spreading nuclear winter around the globe.
A conventional US attack on North Korea would be far more difficult. The North is a small nation of only 24.8 million. Its air and sea forces are obsolete and ineffective. They would be vaporized on the first day of a war. But North Korea’s million-man army has been training and digging in for decades to resist a US invasion. Pyongyang’s 88,000-man Special Forces are poised for suicide attacks on South Korea’s political and military command and control and to cripple key US and South Korean air bases, notably Osan and Kunsan.
North Korea may use chemical weapons such as VX and Sarin to knock out the US/South Korean and Japanese airbases, military depots, ports and communications hubs. Missile attacks would be launched against US bases in Guam and Okinawa.
Short of using nuclear weapons, the US would be faced with mounting a major invasion of mountainous North Korea, something for which it is today unprepared. It took the US six months to assemble a land force in Saudi Arabia just to attack feeble Iraq. Taking on the tough North Korean army and militia in their mountain redoubts will prove a daunting challenge.
US analysts have in the past estimated a US invasion of North Korea would cost some 250,000 American casualties and at least $10 billion, though I believe such a war would cost four times that much today. The Army, Air Force and Marines would have to mobilize reserves to wage a war in Korea. Already overstretched US forces would have to be withdrawn from Europe and the Mideast. Military conscription might have to be re-introduced.
US war planners believe that an attempt to assassinate or isolate North Korean leader Kim Jung-un – known in the military as ‘decapitation’- would cause the North Korean armed forces to scatter and give up. I don’t think so.
My visits to South and North Korea have shown me that soldiers of both nations are amazingly tough, patriotic and ready to fight. I’ve also been under the Demilitarized Zone in some of the warren of secret tunnels built by North Korea under South Korean fortifications. Hundreds of North Korean long-range 170mm guns and rocket batteries are buried into the hills facing the DMZ, all within range of the northern half of South Korea’s capital, Seoul.
North Korea is unlikely to be a pushover in a war. Even after US/South Korean forces occupy Pyongyang, the North has prepared for a long guerilla war in the mountains that could last for decades. They have been practicing for 30 years. Chaos in North Korea will invite Chinese military intervention, but not necessarily to the advantage of the US and its allies.
Is Commander-in-Chief Trump, who somehow managed to avoid military service during the Vietnam War, really ready to launch a big war in Asia? Most Americans still can’t locate Korea on a map. Will Congress tax every American taxpayer $20,000 to pay for a new Korean war? Will Russia sit by quietly while the US blows apart North Korea? Does anyone in the White House know that North Korea borders on Russia and is less than 200km from the key Russian port of Vladivostok?
All this craziness would be ended if the US signed a peace treaty with North Korea ending the first Korean War and opened up diplomatic and commercial relations. No need for war or missile threats. North Korea is a horrid, brutal regime. But so is Egypt, whose tin pot dictator was wined and dined by Trump last week.
But pounding the rostrum with your shoe is always much more fun than boring peace talks.
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Here are some films I shot in South and North Korea three years ago:
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2017
This post is in: North Korea, South Korea, USA
Some ramblings:
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A very frightening situation…. and, I think the Donald is stupid enough to embark on this. I hesitate to use the word ‘ignorant’ because I don’t think there are many around him that are aware of all the ramifications of his actions or most of them. The Donald is like a bull in a China shop with the ‘football’.
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His invasion of Syria, and that’s the correct word, has not likely been been forgotten and if I were Assad, I would make it clear that they, or anyone not invited, are not welcome in Syrian airspace and I would be ‘cleaning out’ the rebels… The Americans have caused the problem in Syria. Restoring the country may be a difficult task since Assad has been largely ineffective so far.
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I’m really surprised the Chinese have not intervened, bringing their navy into the South China Sea, or with the permission of N.Korea, closer to the Korean mainland. This has a direct impact on their claiming sovereignty of the area. Perhaps the Americans have already made a secret deal with them that they can have the area without argument. One has to wonder if the Americans would honour this commitment to the Chinese; you know how the Americans can be trusted.
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The Americans have not been involved in a significant battle since Vietnam which they lost badly. This battle will be much worse, and, as you note could last decades. Although China regards NK as a very errant child, subject to the caveat above, they have to defend ‘the kid’.
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The Americans keep repeating that NK is the rogue, where, they they themselves could be considered as the world aggressors.
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The destruction to that part of the world will only help American manufacturing. Almost reminds me of the Americans forcing the Japanese into WW2 and for the same reasons. I don’t think that Trump has the same dislike (hatred?) of the Japanese as Roosevelt had.
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There’s nothing like a war to improve the ‘ratings’ for a President and to improve the economic conditions.
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Dik
The US spends so much more money on the Military and the Weapons of Death and Destruction than Russia, China, Iran and many other Nations combined, when they’re used, Americans seem to have a collective orgasm!
Look how all the Trump detractors, Republican, Democrat, and the MSM did a 180 degree turn around, and his poll numbers rose.
Mr. Margolis,
An excellent practical analysis. NK use of nukes would affect China and Japan far more than US. We have a $20 debt, much of it owed to China and Japan. They have the money and motivation to deal with that threatening, but empoverished country in their neighborhood.
Happy Easter,
Vincent
I think are affect would be global. Targets in Japan are likely, and nuclear contamination for SE Asia would have a big impact on the rest of the world. Targets in S.Korea would also be likely.
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The area is one of the main sources for electronics equipment, and, the destruction of it would be a big boost for American industry… everything from TV’s to cars.
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I don’t know if N.Korea has the capability of launching a missile that would reach California… it really doesn’t have to be that precise, but, the effects would be horrific.
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That is only the beginning… the consequences would be far reaching. Would N.Korea remain as a ‘barren’ wasteland irradiated for centuries? Would the US try to take it over to annex it S.Korea, or for themselves using conventional weapons? They haven’t do so well in wars where they have ‘men on the ground’.
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The effects would have a major world impact, not just to China and Japan. China, in their good common sense is not ratcheting or hyping up the possible war, unlike some neocons who will gain financially from any skirmish.
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Dik
America chose Nixon over McGovern; Bush over Gore, and Trump over Sanders.
A year ago, there was a clear choice between this bellicose nonsense and a third voice daring to speak new wisdom outside of the popular realm of many mainstream journalists.
I cannot help but wonder why so many good writers chose to ignore Bernie Sanders……and here we are.
$40 billion seems wildly low for the war you are describing. Also, the US would not boost taxes to pay for it any more than they have for any war since the last one in Korea. They would simply print more money. it would be an open question however who exactly would be accepting the paper especially since the Chinese might not be in a mood to keep on trading real goods for printed promises.
Let’s hope that the Chinese leadership will succeed in bringing both sides to their senses and manage to persuade them to face each other in mediated negotiations on neutral soil. My suggestion would be to get someone from neutral Sweden or Switzerland to mediate talks involving the US and South Korea on one side and the Chinese and North Koreans on the other. Let’s also hope that the the more sensible and sober advisers in Trump’s White House will persuade the President to back away from his bellicose threats. Absolutely no good would come from a second Korean War.