FED UP WITH KARZAI? TRY ZARDARI
December 21, 2009
Washington is finally getting some of the democracy it has long been calling for in Pakistan. The result is a disaster for US “Afpak” policy.
The Obama administration is fast discovering that its man in Islamabad, President Asif Ali Zardari, may be an even bigger ethical and managerial liability than its overseer in Kabul, President Hamid Karzai.      
 
Over the years, I’ve met every Pakistani leader save the current one, President Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto. But I’ve written for decades about corruption charges that relentlessly dog him. At one point, I was threatened with having acid thrown in my face if I kept writing about the Bhutto-Zardari’s financial scandals.   
 
Asif Ali Zardari became known to one and all as “Mr 10%” from the time when he was a minister in his wife’s government, in charge of approving government contracts. Critics say the 10% and other brazen kickbacks produced millions for the Zardari-Bhutto family. 
 
But Benazir Bhutto repeatedly insisted to me that she and her husband – who was tortured and jailed for years on corruption charges – were innocent, victims of political persecution in Pakistan’s utterly corrupt legal system where “justice” goes to the biggest payer of bribes, and politicians use courts to punish their rivals. Small wonder so many Pakistanis are calling for far more honest and swifter, if more draconian,  Islamic justice.
 
In 2008, Washington sought to rescue Musharraf’s foundering   dictatorship by convincing the popular Benazir Bhutto, who had exiled herself to Dubai, to front for him as democratic window-dressing for continued military rule. Her price: amnesty for a long list of corruption charges against her and her husband. The US and Britain quietly arranged the amnesty for the Bhuttos and thousands of their indicted supporters (and other political figures).
 
Benazir confided in me she had a secret plan to oust Musharraf once she got back into power. Just before her assassination, Benazir also told me jealous associates of Musharraf were gunning for her. 
 
Asif Zardari then inherited Benazir’s  Pakistan People’s  Party, the nation’s largest, as a sort of personal property.  He became president, thanks to strong US and British political and financial support. His rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was regarded by the western powers as insufficiently supportive of the war in Afghanistan, and too independent-minded.  
 
Zardari repaid America’s support by facilitating the US war in Afghanistan, and allowed the Pentagon to keep using Pakistan’s bases and military personnel, without which the war in Afghanistan could not be prosecuted. Washington promised Pakistan’s elite, pro-western leadership at least $8 billion.   
 
That sleazy deal has now come unstuck thanks to  Pakistan’s newest, rather improbable democratic hero, Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. As chief justice of the Supreme Court under Musharraf, Chaudhry was expected to rubber stamp government decisions. 
 
Instead, Justice Chaudhry began enforcing the law by reinstating the dismissed corruption charges and examining the legality of Musharraf’s self-appointed second term.  
Musharraf had Justice Chaudhry kicked off the bench. He, and a score of fellow judges who would not toe the line, were placed under house arrest. Some were beaten. Their pensions were cancelled. 
 
Shamefully, Washington and London, who claim to be waging war in Afghanistan to bring it democracy, gave Musharraf a green light to purge Pakistan’s judiciary.    
 
But the ebbing of Zardari’s power has resulted in the reinstatement by parliament of Justice Chaudhry, who promptly reinstated all the old charges. For the first time, Pakistan was tasting the true institutions of democracy at work.   Its US-engineered regime is running scared.
 
Zardari has presidential immunity against criminal charges. But his chief lieutenants face prosecution, notably regime strongman, Interior Minister Rehman Malik, and Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar. Both are key supporters and facilitators of  US military operations in Afghanistan, America’s use of Pakistani bases, and Pakistan’s war against its own rebellious Pashtun tribesmen (aka “Taliban”).   Malik is due in court on 2 January, 2010 and is banned from leaving Pakistan.
 
Opposition parties are demanding Zardari and senior aides  resign. Islamabad is in an uproar just when Washington needs Pakistan’s government to intensify the war against the so-called Pakistani Taliban and support President Barack Obama’s expanded war in Afghanistan. Washington is also intensifying drone attacks inside Pakistan, that are provoking fierce public outrage against the US, and weighing air attacks on Baluchistan Province.   
 
Skeletons are dancing out of Zardari’s closets: $63 million in illegal kickbacks and commissions allegedly hidden in Swiss bank accounts; accusation of laundering $13.7 million in Switzerland. Charges of kickback on helicopter and warplane deals. In 2003, Swiss magistrates found Zardari and Bhutto guilty of money laundering, sentencing then to a six month suspended jail term, a fine of $50,000, and ordered them to repay $11 million to Pakistan’s government. 
 
Zardari’s has an estimated personal fortune of $2 billion; luxurious properties in the US, France, Spain and Britain, and on it goes.   Amazingly, he avoided trial in Switzerland by claiming mental illness. 
 
 In 2008, Gen. Musharraf had all charges against the Bhuttos dropped as part of the US-engineered plan for a diumverate with Benazir.
 
The Bhuttos remain one of the largest feudal landowners
in a desperately poor nation where annual income is US$1,027 and illiteracy over 50%. Pakistan has been ruled since its creation in 1947 by either callous feudal landlords, who bought and sold politicians like bags of Basmati rice, or by generals. 
 
 
It appears that Zardari’s days as Washington’s man in Islamabad are numbered.   Anti-American fury is surging, with popular claims that Pakistan has been “occupied” by the US, treated like a third rate banana republic, and is run by corrupt, US-installed stooges and crooks. Shades of Iran under the Shah, and Egypt under Sadat.  
 
Many Pakistanis blame the current bloody wave of bombings in their nation on US mercenaries from Xe (formerly Blackwater), and old foe India staging attacks in revenge for decades of bombings in Kashmir, Punjab and its eastern hill states by Pakistani intelligence.  
 
Most Pakistanis believe Washington is bent on tearing apart their unstable nation to seize its nuclear weapons.   
 
In the process of prosecuting its occupation of relatively insignificant Afghanistan, the US has turned Pakistan, a nation of great strategic importance, into a bitter foe.
 
Washington is almost back to square one in turbulent Pakistan. When Zardari goes or is kicked upstairs as an impotent  figurehead, attention will turn to Pakistan’s 617,000-man military and its commander, Gen – or should we say “president-elect” Ashfaq Kiyani?   He is already in almost constant contact with the Pentagon.  The weak prime minister, Sayed Yusuf Gilani, might also be invested with more real powers.
   
In 2010, the ugly acronym, “Afpak,” will bedevil, befuddle, and consume the Obama White House that so unwisely and rashly ignored Gen. Douglas MacArthur’s wise warning to avoid land wars in Asia.  
 
 
 
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copyright Eric S. Margolis 2009
 
Zeeshan
Monday, January 11, 2010 4:51 PM
Hi Mr. Margolis, hope all is well in the new year.

Some very good observation you made about the Pakistani psyche and perception toward the United States, as it relates to the Afpak strategy.

You hit the nail on the head about ordinary Pakistanis turning to swift Islamic justice, in the face of an endless array of Zardaris. As ludicrous as it may sound to some people, Pakistan seems to be headed for a slow and very painful break-up. This is not a far-fetched idea, since it has happened before with the separation of East Pakistan into Bangladesh.

The underlying cause in the East Pakistan debacle was ethnic tension between Bengalis and the power center in West Pakistan, who did not recognize legitimate majority of the Bengalis, fearing a shift in the power center from Islamabad to Dhaka.

This second round of civil strife is coupled with the dangerous element of religion piled on top of ethnic identity. The Pashtuns and Balochis have largely been marginalized and have been correct in their past accusations, of a discriminatory, Punjabi dominated government that does not give them a fair share of the government treasury (amongst so many other things).

I imagine a scenario where the United States and India play good cop/bad cop, and move in to seize Pakistani nukes.

There are two possible outcomes; Pakistan disintegrates like Yugoslavia, largely centered around the Punjab and emerges as another impotent Bangladesh. The other scenario is an unexpected and sudden unity in the face of a foreign attack, between the Pak Army and the Islamist insurgency.

I shudder to think about the latter, because it would annihilate the entire region.

The sub-continent mentality does not view nukes as a deterrent to war, rather, something that guarantees mutually assured destruction if attacked by that dreadful neighbor.

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