The United States and the two feuding Koreas could blunder into a real war unless both Pyongyang and Washington cease provoking one another.

Last week, two nuclear-capable US B-2 stealth bombers flew non-stop from America to South Korea, and then home. These ‘invisible’ aircraft can carry the GBU-43/B MOAB 13,600kg bomb that is said to be able to blast through 70 meters of reinforced concrete, putting North Korea’s underground nuclear facilities and its leadership’s command bunkers under dire threat.

Earlier this month, US B-52’s heavy bombers staged mock attack runs over South Korea – within minutes flying time of the North – rekindling memories of the massive US carpet bombing raids that devastated North Korea during the 1950’s Korean War. US-South Korean-Australian war games in March were designed to train for war with the North. The US media ignored these provocative exercises, but, as usual, North Korea went ballistic, foolishly threatening to attack the US with long-ranged missiles it does not yet possess.

We have grown jaded over the years by North Korea’s threats and chest-beating. But its recent successful nuclear test and work on a long-ranged missile have begun to add muscle to Pyongyang’s threats. No sooner was the new young North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, in power than the US, South Korea and Japan began testing him.

More important, the US-South Korea defense treaty calls on Washington to militarily intervene if war erupts between North and South Korea. Given present tensions, a border fight on the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), commando raids by North Korea’s 110,000-man special forces, air or naval clashes could quickly lead to full war.

North Korea has repeatedly threatened to flatten parts of South Korea’s capitol, Seoul, using 11,000 heavy guns and rocket batteries hidden in caves along the DMZ. North Korean commandos and missile batteries are tasked with attacking all US airbases and command headquarters in South Korea. The 28,500 US troops based in South Korea will also be a primary target.

North Korea’s medium ranged missiles are aimed at US bases on mainland Japan, Okinawa and Guam. North Korea’s tough 1.1-million man army is poised to attack south. Massive US airpower would eventually blunt such an advance, but that would mean moving US warplanes from the Gulf and Afghanistan. The US Air Force’s stocks of bombs and missiles are perilously low and its equipment showing heavy wear and tear.

The US has become accustomed to waging war against small nations whose ‘threat’ has been wildly overblown: Grenada, Somalia, Iraq, Libya. The last real war fought by the US, against Vietnam, was an epic defeat for American arms. North Korea is not an Iraq or Libya.

North Korea’s air force and navy would be quickly destroyed by US and South Korean air power within days of war. But taking on North Korea’s hard as nails army will be a serious challenge if it fights on the defensive. Pentagon studies show that invading North Korea could cost the US up to 250,000 casualties. So the US would be clearly tempted to use tactical nuclear weapons. But North Korea vows to nuke Japan if the US goes nuclear. And there is the threat of Chinese intervention.

The US would be wise to back off from this confrontation and lower tensions with North Korea. America’s empty Treasury can’t afford yet another war, having already blown $2 trillion on the lost wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. America’s armed forces, bogged down in the Mideast and Afghanistan, are in no shape to fight a real war in Korea. Just moving heavy armor and guns there would take months.

Now might be a good time for Washington to ease rather than keep tightening sanctions on North Korea. Pyongyang’s real objectives are to gain a non-aggression treaty with the US and direct, normal relations. Washington won’t hear of this, though it deals with other repellant regimes. American neocons are determined to overthrow North Korea’s regime, fearing it will send advanced arms to Israel’s Mideast foes.

Military forces on the Korean Peninsula are on hair-trigger alert. Flying B-2’s near the North is almost daring it to attack. Diplomats, not air force generals, should be running this largely manufactured crisis.
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copyright Eric S. Margolis 2013

Realizing they will never be a world power, the Cypriots have decided to settle for being a world nuisance.
~ George Mikes, Hungarian writer

Cyprus is a big pain in the neck for one and all. Its banks are bust due to reckless lending to Greece. The sunny island is a beehive of tax evasion, money laundering, dodgy trade and espionage.

Now, the threatened bankruptcy of Cyprus has triggered the latest European financial crisis.

Russian businessmen and the Russian Mafia have some 30 billion euros stashed away in Cyprus. Russians make up the second largest biggest cohort of Greek Cyprus’ 869,000 people. Some 260,000 ethnic Turks live in the isolated Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which no one but Turkey recognizes.

A 10 billion euro EU bailout is in the works. But the Germans, who will have to fund most of the rescue, are loath to rescue the Russian mob, and who can blame them?

So the Germans seem set on punishing the wayward Greek Cypriotes and their Russian pals by trying to impose a tax on local bank deposits. This ham-handed plan triggered outrage and fear across Europe, and may ignite a run on banks in Cyprus and Greece. Moscow is furious.

But there’s much more to the Cyprus crisis than its dubious banks. Cyprus has bedeviled Europe and world diplomacy since 1974, then Greek Cypriot far rightists staged a coup and sought union – or “enosis” – with mainland Greece. Turkey promptly intervened with 30,000 troops to protect Turkish Cypriots in the north. Many Greeks fled or were expelled to the south.

Europe and the UN have been trying to sort out the Cyprus mess ever since. After decades of mind-numbing negotiations, former UN chief Kofi Annan proposed a sensible deal in 2004 for a Greek-Turkish federation. Turks accepted, but Greek Cypriots blocked it. Britain, which has two important air bases in Cyprus, backed the status quo.

In the same year, the EU committed the grave error of admitting Cyprus as a member without first insisting that Greek Cypriots agree to a peace deal and Greek-Turkish federation.

Northern Cyprus was left in limbo while the south became part of the EU, assuring the island’s ugly dispute would become part of the European Union. Cyprus should never have been admitted to the EU.

Europeans who opposed Turkish membership in the EU used Cyprus as a pretext to delay admission, infuriating Turkey.

After decades of patient work developing normal relations after centuries of conflict, Greece and Turkey are again up in arms again over Cyprus. Their dangerous problem of overlapping air and sea claims in the Aegean has revived – just when Greece must slash its bloated military budget.

It gets worse. Very large underwater gas deposits were recently discovered between Cyprus and Israel. Both Cyprus and Israel, who are to jointly develop them, could become energy exporters. They have become very close allies.

“Not so fast” say Cyprus’ Turkish minority. ‘That gas also belongs in part to us!” Ankara insists the gas must be shared and has sent ships to back its claim.
Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon and Syria are also advancing claims to the “Aphrodite” gas field off Cyprus -shades of the tense South China Sea. But most likely to clash are the Turks and Israelis.

Turkey is still boiling mad over the Israeli seizure of a Gaza bound relief ship in 2010 and the killing of nine Turks.
Israel has emerged as a major backer of the embattled Greek government, using its influence in Washington and financial clout.

Russia, increasingly interested in the Greece-Cyprus-Syria region, says it will keep a nine-ship squadron in the eastern Mediterranean as Moscow’s worries over Syria, now under western siege, grow by the day. Moscow is hinting that it might bail out Cypriot banks in exchange for the lion’s share of the “Aphrodite” gas fields.

All the elements are in place for a very nasty, dangerous multi-party confrontation in the eastern Mediterranean. The EU could have pre-empted this danger by using a bank rescue of Cyprus to force Greek Cypriots to make a sensible peace deal with their Turkish neighbours. And by forcing Cyprus to fairly share the offshore gas bonanza with neighbouring states. But it probably won’t.

Copyright © 2013 Eric Margolis

NEW YORK – In the colorful, pithy Scottish language, there’s a delightful expression, “greet an’ gurn.” Which means to loudly moan and groan.

That’s what’s happened this week across the United States as the fiscal Ides of March grow close. On
March 1, unless Congress and the White House come to an agreement on cutting taxes and/or spending the dreaded “Sequestration” takes effect.

According to this plan promulgated by President Barack Obama, automatic federal spending cuts over 10 years of $1.2 trillion will take effect, with $85 billion hitting in 2013.

Listening to all the special interests moan and groan, one would think it’s the end of the world for poor America – a giant leap backwards into the Stone Age. Everyone agrees the dangerous US budget deficit must be cut – provided cuts come out of someone else’s hide.

Claims are made that al-Qaida will attack Kansas City if military spending is cut, or the Chinese will seize Hawaii. Consumer spending will fall, warn critics, sending the US economy backwards – even though the respected Congressional Budget Office estimates the total sequester will only cause a small .6% drop in consumer spending.
America will grind to a halt, claim doom-sayers.

Granted, $1.2 trillion is a lot of money, even by Washington’s standards. But it’s not as catastrophic as the huge number suggests. The Federal Budget is $3.6 trillion and GDP $16 trillion annually. The $85 billion in cuts mandated for 2013 are not a big percentage of the huge US economy. The Pentagon’s total combined budget alone is around $1 trillion annually.

Most Americans, grown deeply cynical by the cowardice and doubletalk of their politicians, expect a last-minute deal between the president and Congress to kick down the road really painful spending cuts. The axe won’t fall until they are long gone from office.

The loudest cries of anguish are coming from Washington and its suburbs where the so-called “Beltway Bandits” – the colonies of private contractors and intelligence agencies, and America’s military-industrial complex that feed off government. There may actually be some real cuts in America’s military spending, which accounts for almost 50% of world military spending.

Horror-stricken military contractors are waiting to see where the axe will fall: the impossibly expensive F-35 fighter, new navy carriers and surface ships, ground forces, anti-missile systems – the list is endless.

Military cuts raises a key strategic question: for what new war should the Pentagon prepare? The old Cold War plan of the US being able to fight 2.5 wars simultaneously, is gone for good. The choice facing the Pentagon is: to plan and equip for more colonial-style energy wars in the Muslim world, or to get ready to confront China in the Pacific. No two conflicts could be more different.

Before World War I, the British Empire’s colonial armies were trained and armed to put down “native” uprisings. They were very good at this. But when Britain’s colonial troops had to face German regulars in Flanders, they were slaughtered and nearly defeated.

The US faces this same problem. Ground and air units configured to hunt guerillas in Afghanistan and Iraq will be useless in a Pacific conflict. All the tens of billions poured into anti-guerilla arms and equipment will be useless. Confronting China will mean more $25 billion-apiece aircraft carriers and surface battle groups, more drones and satellite systems, more Marines and Pacific air bases.

So the Pentagon and intelligence agencies, whose budgets doubled after the 9/11 attacks, face a serious diet; and they must decide on which war to plan for.

Having just been defeated in the $2 trillion Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the Pentagon may actually be relieved to go back to conventional warfare against Chinese targets they can identify.

But if the choice is China, the Pentagon will need 5-10 years to re-equip and rearm its forces for the Pacific. And, of course, trillions in new spending. Military competition with increasingly high-tech China in its backyard will prove ruinously expensive. What’s more, American forces have become too costly to use in war, as Iraq and Afghanistan showed. The US has grown soft and flabby fighting small nations with no air power: China will prove a very different story.
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copyright Eric S. Margolis 2013